EURUSD Outlook FOMC
The consolidation movement is bound to be distorted by the intervention of Yellen and especially from a possible intervention on interest rates.
A rate increase above the + 0.50% would result in a strengthening of the US dollar decided, with the market that would be caught largely by surprise.
The inflow of orders to buy the currency to the Stars and Stripes would euro-dollar to the lower wall of the accumulation triangle, in blue, and to share 1.10.
In particular, 1.1128 and 1.1070 are the two main media event of a decline, the violation of which would make them resistance to any attempts to retrace.
The monetary tightening, if it were to occur, would in the short and medium-term effects, leading in all probability the single currency back even below 1.10, towards the values abandoned last December.
The waiting continues to accompany every Fed meeting is in fact growing, given the many promises come by Yellen and other members of the FOMC, so an intervention that finally manifest could only break decisively on the euro-dollar.
If things remain as they are, with the usual dovish tones and a reference to the month of December, it will be expected a recovery by the euro against the dollar. In this case the movement should be less intense than in the first case, as expected by the market, but capable of testing at least the upper part of 1.12, and the upper wall of the triangle.
Looking at the upside are 1.1240 and 1.1286 the two key levels to exit the collection figure, with 1.13 share that starting point possible point for the following days.
Now the price travels around the middle of the price range covered with the last swing, the apparent uncertainty on the part of the market signal. But often it is the uncertainty the most appropriate introduction to big changes.
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