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Gold (XAU/USD)

had been trading with a bullish bias till last Thursday on fears and rumors surrounding the Deutsche bank and these fears continued during the first half of Friday which kept Gold bid and sellers disinterested. This changed during the US session as the fears receded and the markets returned to risk on mode. The risk on mode generally results in funds being pulled out of safe havens like gold and USD and thats what we saw during the second half of Friday and we saw Gold falling from 1328 through 1320 and sitting at the support at 1317. Today, it has had a pretty aimless day so far as it made a run towards 1320 again and has since come back again to 1316. Expect some more aimless trading in this pair till Friday when NFP gets released.

All attention over the last week was focussed on Oil with gold and silver being reduced to side shows as the OPEC meeting was held and finally a deal being reached on cutting the oil production to boost prices. This move has been largely successful so far as we have seen oil enjoying a bullish run ever since. Friday was no exception with oil reaching as far as 48.6, its high from the previous day where it continues to consolidate for its next move higher. As pointed out in one of our earlier forecasts, we believe that a break of 48.6 would open up 50 and then this bullish run could go as far as 52. For today, we can expect some more consolidation around 48.6 and traders could either wait for a correction towards 47.6 for a loading of their buys or can wait for a break and retest of 48.6 to go for a buy.

Silver generally followed the pattern of gold with a bullish run for the first part of Friday followed by a fall later in the day on general risk on sentiment. The pair went up as high as 19.75 but then failed to break through further and came back to support at 19.1 and like gold, it has been an aimless morning so far in silver. We continue to be cautiously bullish on this pair with a target at 21.




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