EUR/USD Outlook 10-14 October

EUR / USD is so ski to 1.12 after testing the 1,110, returning several times within the last period paths paths.

The economic calendar next week sees two major events, both increasingly coming from overseas: the FOMC minutes and US retail sales.

After seeing the forecast for the next days on the Italian stock market, we understand now how these market movers will be able to influence the price of euro-dollar and what prospects await the tradato among the changes.

Euro-dollar gives but does not give up: continue the downward?
EUR/usd retrace much of the downward continued from Monday to Thursday with the Non Farm Payrolls on Friday.

The week was characterized by a great progression of the US dollar, strengthening against all other currencies, a factor that has led to a drastic fall in the price of gold, silver and safe haven currencies such as the yen.

In this context, the single currency has withstood the impact, and it is not in its downward thrust to below 1,11 share, before going back up.

In the graph it is evident that the final rise of Friday, bringing the price of EUR / USD on one of the levels of the past two months.


However this false breakout has led the change of price levels that were not touched by the first half of August, in a trend that then continues to be oriented downward.

The following chart shows the bearish cross movement of EUR / USD, with a renewed sequence of lower highs that has also characterized the five candles this week:


The maximum of Friday was recorded just in correspondence of the point of fibo50% level.

Needless to say, the FOMC minutes planned for Wednesday evening and the USA as usual Friday, in this case retail sales, move the US currency and will be decisive in the continuation of the downtrend or its reversal.

The forecasts of analysts look at retail sales rising markedly over the previous month while the weight of the FOMC minutes is yet to be determined.

The market looks at the December meeting as the next suspect for a possible rise in interest rates, and on Wednesday night it might be time for new directions.

The example of the Non Farm Payrolls on Friday showed, however, as we can expect all kinds of surprises from these market movers, to which the market has become very sensitive, always leaving open a possible reversal to the upside.

The bullish scenario does not however assume relevant contours before passing 1,124 share, above which would meet a band of maximum accumulation up all’1,128. Only an overtaking of this range would have particular relevance in this context, as appears today very unlikely.

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